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Data story

What 18,000 baskets say about trust

We are far better at explaining our choices than at making them.

A lone figure climbing a pale stone staircase towards an arched window filled with light
A stairwell, lit from above. Photograph: The Unreasonable Human

The remedy is rarely exhortation. It is a change to the situation so that the easier choice is also the better one. The mind that evolved for small groups and immediate dangers is now asked to manage a pension. It does its best. The usual story is that we are careless calculators. The better story is that we are careful about the wrong things. The lesson is modest. Build for the person who exists, not the one in the model.

A better question

If you want to see luck at work, watch a queue form where there is no reason for one. The usual story is that we are careless calculators. The better story is that we are careful about the wrong things. A pattern this consistent is not a character flaw. It is a design feature, and design features can be worked with. Consider the deadline. It is a small thing, and small things are where habits live.

Then and now
Per cent of the sample
AgreeNeutralDisagree
18–29
58%
22%
20%
30–49
64%
19%
17%
50+
71%
15%
14%
UH analysis of published survey archives

The textbook treats luck as a preference to be revealed. In practice it is a story we tell ourselves after the fact. The honest conclusion is uncomfortable for reformers: people are not waiting to be corrected. None of this is new. Adam Smith noticed most of it, and then the profession spent two centuries forgetting. The lesson is modest. Build for the person who exists, not the one in the model.

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Alina Petrova
Alina Petrova — Editor-in-chief

Alina Petrova is a Year 12 student preparing to apply to university, and the founder and editor of The Unreasonable Human. She reads across psychology, economics, behavioural science and neuroscience, and writes about the gap between how people are supposed to decide and how they actually do.

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