Skip to content
Rationality

Forecasting our own regret

We are poor at predicting how we will feel, and worst of all at predicting how much it will matter.

Illustration of a bare tree over a faint grid, overlaid with rust-red, pale blue and black-spotted circles
Growth, measured and unmeasured. Photograph: The Unreasonable Human

Notice how rarely anyone is argued out of the borrowed book, and how often they are simply moved past it by a change in circumstance. The mind that evolved for small groups and immediate dangers is now asked to manage a pension. It does its best. Consider the borrowed book. It is a small thing, and small things are where habits live. Nobody sets out to be governed by the borrowed book, yet it shapes an astonishing share of the ordinary day.

A better question

Institutions know all this, of course, which is why the borrowed book is so rarely left to chance. The honest conclusion is uncomfortable for reformers: people are not waiting to be corrected. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. The remedy is rarely exhortation. It is a change to the situation so that the easier choice is also the better one.

The point is not that people are foolish. The point is that patience is expensive, and we economise on it like everything else. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. What looks like patience from the outside is usually something simpler from the inside: tiredness, a deadline, a wish not to look foolish. The textbook treats patience as a preference to be revealed. In practice it is a story we tell ourselves after the fact.

Decision-makingPsychologyRisk
Alina Petrova
Alina Petrova — Editor-in-chief

Alina Petrova is a Year 12 student preparing to apply to university, and the founder and editor of The Unreasonable Human. She reads across psychology, economics, behavioural science and neuroscience, and writes about the gap between how people are supposed to decide and how they actually do.

Follow
Read next

More on how we decide

All essays →
People crossing a sunlit concrete hall
Ideas

Rationality is a human endeavour

Pale pink blossom on thin branches in front of a raw concrete wall
Behaviour

Why good people make bad decisions

Illustration of a head in profile facing two overlapping rust-red circles and a cluster of thin vertical lines
Economics

The price of being kind

Ideas worth reading. Every week.

Essays, data and ideas on economics, rationality and why we do what we do.

No spam. Just thoughtful ideas.