The point is not that people are foolish. The point is that expertise is expensive, and we economise on it like everything else. A pattern this consistent is not a character flaw. It is a design feature, and design features can be worked with. In the studies we have, the effect is modest, reliable and almost entirely ignored by the people it describes. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own.
Where the model breaks
Consider the second opinion. It is a small thing, and small things are where habits live. A pattern this consistent is not a character flaw. It is a design feature, and design features can be worked with. The strange thing about the second opinion is not that it exists but that it works, most of the time, for most people. Nobody sets out to be governed by the second opinion, yet it shapes an astonishing share of the ordinary day.
