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The case against the weather forecast

Not every irrational act is a mistake. Some are the point.

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Growth, measured and unmeasured. Photograph: The Unreasonable Human

In the studies we have, the effect is modest, reliable and almost entirely ignored by the people it describes. Institutions know all this, of course, which is why the commute is so rarely left to chance. The strange thing about the commute is not that it exists but that it works, most of the time, for most people. Put a number on effort and it becomes a target; put a target on it and the number stops meaning what it meant.

Why it persists

There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. A pattern this consistent is not a character flaw. It is a design feature, and design features can be worked with. The point is not that people are foolish. The point is that effort is expensive, and we economise on it like everything else. The remedy is rarely exhortation. It is a change to the situation so that the easier choice is also the better one.

NudgesInstitutions
Alina Petrova
Alina Petrova — Editor-in-chief

Alina Petrova is a Year 12 student preparing to apply to university, and the founder and editor of The Unreasonable Human. She reads across psychology, economics, behavioural science and neuroscience, and writes about the gap between how people are supposed to decide and how they actually do.

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