The honest conclusion is uncomfortable for reformers: people are not waiting to be corrected. The point is not that people are foolish. The point is that trust is expensive, and we economise on it like everything else. Consider small talk. It is a small thing, and small things are where habits live. Ask most people why they did what they did and they will give you a reason; ask them again a week later and the reason will have quietly changed.
The cost of being right
Put a number on trust and it becomes a target; put a target on it and the number stops meaning what it meant. Notice how rarely anyone is argued out of small talk, and how often they are simply moved past it by a change in circumstance. The point is not that people are foolish. The point is that trust is expensive, and we economise on it like everything else. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own.
It is tempting to call this irrational. It is more useful to ask what it is for. The evidence here is thinner than the confident commentary suggests, and the honest position is a shrug with a direction of travel. The remedy is rarely exhortation. It is a change to the situation so that the easier choice is also the better one. The lesson is modest. Build for the person who exists, not the one in the model.
