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Data story

The shape of the deadline

The mind is built for a different world. It copes remarkably well with this one.

People crossing a sunlit concrete hall
Morning light in a concrete hall, Lisbon. Photograph: The Unreasonable Human

The honest conclusion is uncomfortable for reformers: people are not waiting to be corrected. It is tempting to call this irrational. It is more useful to ask what it is for. If you want to see choice at work, watch a queue form where there is no reason for one. In the studies we have, the effect is modest, reliable and almost entirely ignored by the people it describes.

A better question

We describe the departure from the model as an error. We might equally describe the model as a hopeful guess about us. The measure that matters is not what people say about choice but what they do when nobody is scoring. Consider the borrowed book. It is a small thing, and small things are where habits live. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own.

Then and now
Share who agree, by age group
18–29
68%
30–49
54%
50+
38%

The textbook treats choice as a preference to be revealed. In practice it is a story we tell ourselves after the fact. Institutions know all this, of course, which is why the borrowed book is so rarely left to chance. A better account of choice would begin with the ordinary case rather than the laboratory one. Understanding people turns out to be a more urgent task than changing them, and a great deal harder.

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Alina Petrova
Alina Petrova — Editor-in-chief

Alina Petrova is a Year 12 student preparing to apply to university, and the founder and editor of The Unreasonable Human. She reads across psychology, economics, behavioural science and neuroscience, and writes about the gap between how people are supposed to decide and how they actually do.

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