There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. Notice how rarely anyone is argued out of the honest mistake, and how often they are simply moved past it by a change in circumstance. The remedy is rarely exhortation. It is a change to the situation so that the easier choice is also the better one. The usual story is that we are careless calculators. The better story is that we are careful about the wrong things.
The cost of being right
Understanding people turns out to be a more urgent task than changing them, and a great deal harder. The textbook treats hope as a preference to be revealed. In practice it is a story we tell ourselves after the fact. The honest conclusion is uncomfortable for reformers: people are not waiting to be corrected. None of this is new. Adam Smith noticed most of it, and then the profession spent two centuries forgetting.
Consider the honest mistake. It is a small thing, and small things are where habits live. The usual story is that we are careless calculators. The better story is that we are careful about the wrong things. Notice how rarely anyone is argued out of the honest mistake, and how often they are simply moved past it by a change in circumstance. The point is not that people are foolish. The point is that hope is expensive, and we economise on it like everything else.
