There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. A better account of hope would begin with the ordinary case rather than the laboratory one. Nobody sets out to be governed by the slow lane, yet it shapes an astonishing share of the ordinary day. Notice how rarely anyone is argued out of the slow lane, and how often they are simply moved past it by a change in circumstance.
What follows
The usual story is that we are careless calculators. The better story is that we are careful about the wrong things. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. It is tempting to call this irrational. It is more useful to ask what it is for. Understanding people turns out to be a more urgent task than changing them, and a great deal harder.
