The mind that evolved for small groups and immediate dangers is now asked to manage a pension. It does its best. The lesson is modest. Build for the person who exists, not the one in the model. Nobody sets out to be governed by the second opinion, yet it shapes an astonishing share of the ordinary day. A better account of status would begin with the ordinary case rather than the laboratory one.
Three kinds of mistake
Every one of us runs the same shortcut, and every one of us believes we are the exception. There is a version of this essay that ends with a policy prescription. This is not that version; the mechanism is interesting enough on its own. The strange thing about the second opinion is not that it exists but that it works, most of the time, for most people. It is tempting to call this irrational. It is more useful to ask what it is for.
